NITI Aayog recently released the draft National Energy Policy (NEP) for public consultation. The NEP has been a work in progress for nearly 2 years. The NEP once finalized will replace the Integrated Energy Policy formulated by the erstwhile planning commission in 2008.
- Develop a long term road-map (up to 2040) to provide clarity to all concerned stakeholders.
- Energy access at affordable prices
- Improved energy security and independence
- Promote sustainability
- Foster economic growth
Considering the NEP is being drafted at a time when India’s ambitious energy targets for the short term are underway, it tries to unify the objectives of 175GW of Renewable Energy (RE) target by 2022, 24×7 Power for All for 2022 and 100 smart cities by 2022. The NEP also reigns in the objectives from India’s Nationally Determined Commitments (NDC) to the Paris climate deal (know more) of 33%-35% emissions intensity reduction by 2030 in comparison to 2005 levels and non-fossil fuel based energy capacity increase to 40% by 2030. Not to forget, the vision of 100% Electric Vehicle (EV) fleet by 2030.
Analysis and outcomes
NITI Aayog’s approach to the planning is noteworthy considering the use of energy modelling tool, India Energy Securities Scenario- 2047 where the supply and demand scenarios of Business As Usual (BAU) and NITI ambition for 2040 is simulated.
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow at around 8% up to 2040.
- Energy demand (across sectors) to grow from 4926 TWh (2012) to 13,192-15,820TWh by 2040.
- Share of electricity in energy demand to be 23.2%-26.1% (2040) from 16% (2012).
- Energy demand will increase 2.7-3.2 times by 2040.
- Per capita electricity consumption to increase from 887kWh (2012) to 2,911-2,924kWh in 2040.
- Installed coal based generation capacity to grow to 330-441GW by 2040 from 192GW in FY 17.
- RE generation capacity to reach 597-710GW in the same period.
- Nuclear power generation capacity expected to increase from the current capacity of 6.7GW to 22.48GW by 2030.
- The RE capacity is expected to account 50%-56% of total capacity by 2040.
Key policy recommendations
NEP, as expected recommends a slew of policies for RE projects, fuel sourcing, air quality and energy technology and Human Resource Development (HRD).
- Gradual withdrawal of ‘must-run’ status and other supports such as non-levy of inter-state transmission charges for RE projects.
- Cross-subsidy bill should be equally shared between industrial clients and large domestic consumers in the short term and totally removed by 2040. (If reforms like UDAY are successful!)
- EVs and energy storage are emerging technologies and should be suitably incentivised through time of use tariffs and related policies.
- Accelerated Depreciation(AD) and Feed-in-Tariffs (FiT) are appropriate tools to drive RE growth in the near term.
- Need to redefine the concept of ‘Electrification’ in electrification programmes like DDUGJY.
- Coal will be phased out as declining energy storage costs is making variable RE viable.
- Efficient use of Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) to provide vulnerable consumers in the sector to foster ‘Equity’ and in turn sustainability.
Recommendations for meeting the ‘uncertainty’ and ‘variability’ challenges in RE integration:
- Upgrade grid technology– System operators at Central and State level to undertake the process
- Upgrade grid operation protocols– Update grid codes and shift scheduling & dispatch from 15min to 5min
- Expand balancing areas– Move from state to regional level grid operations
- Upgrade grid planning practices– Green Energy Corridors
- Balancing resources-estimation, procurement, dispatch– Ancillary services regulations
Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO)– NEP believes RPO will be one of the major drivers for RE in the short term but doesn’t provide a road-map to what happens when RPO ceases beyond 2020-22.
Regional inter-connection– RE being geography dependent will be concentrated only in about 8-10 states. Although this is acknowledged there is a lack of clarity on how regulations could drive inter-regional capacity transfers beyond the period when non-levy of inter-state transmission charges ceases.
Must-run status– One of the recommendations is to move away from classifying RE as ‘must-run’ but little thought is given to the current state of RE curtailment in spite of being ‘must-run’.
Electric Vehicles– NITI Aayog could have provided suitable recommendations to bring energy storage under the ambit of electricity act and proposed to permit energy resale to promote development of EV charging infrastructures.
Overall, the NEP draft is a good starting point backed by suitable analysis and modeling although it misses out on making a strong policy statement. Hopefully the missing gaps in policy recommendations and road-map are plugged in due course of stakeholder consultation.